ICC Digital Library Forum

Does anybody agree with Neil Chantry's comments that paper-based trade documents have only got 10 years life left ?

My personal opinion is that it will last considerably longer than that, bearing in mind the present limited availability of such documents and the costs associated with it.

Laurence

When one says that paper presentation in DC operations will disappear in ten years’ time, we have to specify which part of the world one is talking about, as the outcome may be different in different parts of the world.

About ten years ago we heard some advance IT executives said in an EDI presentation that the e-commerce would rule the world within ten years, and at that time the EDI was the mainstream tool. But what is the situation now?

As it is only human nature to resist changes, we would not take any personal predictions seriously, unless supported by a large scale survey and based on some reliable figures. Otherwise they remain only crystal ball fairy tales. The paper world may have more than ten years on certain parts of the world.

The market leader in e-commerce should be USA and yet we may find in some parts of USA paper presentation may still exist after ten years from now, such as in some in-land states. After all, not all parts of USA are as advanced as NY or LA.

www.tolee.com

[edited 3/28/02 10:27:23 PM]

Further to our comments on the future development of the eUCP, we have the following to add:

QUOTE

“According to BNP Paribas' Raanan Barzel, Bolero is well placed to provide a central role in the structures required to operationalise eUCP transactions. "The core requirement of eUCP for document authentication would require each trading party around the world to manage and access potentially all the world's certification authorities." This he says would be impractical. "The only way to proceed is via a trust broker's central hub. Bolero is a prime candidate for this function," he says”.

UNQUOTE

1 Inspired by the above message from the news provided by the DC Pro on 2 April 2002, we would say that the success and popularity of the eUCP or e-commerce if you will, depends very much on the attitude taken by the SMEs (small and medium sized enterprises) that contribute to 80% of the trading community in each country, whether developed or not.

2 It is expensive for a SME to hire an e-commerce expert to work in its office and to subscribe to BOLERO. The only way that the SME can participate in e-commerce on a large scale is to have a TTP (Trusted Third Party) or TSP (Trusted Services Provider) to perform as a hub or intermediate between the BOLERO, the expensive giant and the small potatoes SMEs (of which we are one). Services of the TTP would be on “per transaction” basis. Only then the eUCP and e-commerce can take a mega leap.

3 Having said that, let us look at North America. The motor industry is now using full e-commerce to buy automobile spare parts. Motor giants like GM, Ford etc. would not give you any business unless you are ready, willing and able (to borrow a popular term created by the fraudsters) to trade electronically. Otherwise you would be out of this big motor parts and accessories market. So e-commerce can also be pushed by the giant corporations.

4 But this does not cover all walks of trade. The next “frog leap” development of eUCP should come from the commodity traders and brokers. So BOLERO should head for this direction in its strategic planning.

5 Bolero should also use trade experts and consultants to introduce their services to banks as well as traders, whether large or small, as these people are independent and unbiased. They have their image, integrity and credibility to keep and they would only recommend good products and services.

www.tolee.com

[edited 4/5/02 3:51:42 PM]

I do agree with the comments above. I also feel that paper based L/Cs will prevail for a quite long time and even then they will play important role. For some trades and/or teritories they will be still more suitable option that the e-credits.

Pavel Andrle