In late February, a development with direct implications for trade flows and trade finance risk pricing came from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

In its latest assessment, the EBRD reported that growth across its regions has remained more resilient than expected despite heightened trade tensions and the disruption associated with new US tariff measures. The Bank revised its regional forecasts upwards to 3.6% growth in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, citing a combination of moderating inflation, ongoing infrastructure spending, and trade pattern adjustments that are, at least so far, less damaging than many had feared.

The nuance is crucial. Resilience does not mean immunity. Reuters' reporting, reflecting comments from EBRD's chief economist, emphasised that the full effects of tariff changes may not yet be visible because some available trade data predates key policy shifts, and because supply chains do not re-route overnight.

That said, the EBRD's analysis points to a familiar phenomenon in periods of trade fragmentation: when one channel constricts, firms hunt for substitutes. Trade diversion and nearshoring can create pockets of opportunity, particularly for economies positioned to provide "China-plus-one" manufacturing or intermediate goods, and for those able to scale exports into the US and EU under altered tariff landscapes.

For trade finance, this kind of environment changes the risk map more than it changes the need for financing. When trade routes and counterparties shift, banks and insurers often see a short-to-medium-term rise in friction: new buyers and sellers require new credit decisions, new KYC profiles, and new comfort around performance and payment behaviour.

Instruments that sit between open account and documentary credits, such as documentary collections, standby structures, and receivables finance with risk mitigation, can regain relevance where relationships are still forming and where parties want leverage without the full cost and rigidity of confirmed credits. At the same time, compliance workload typically increases, as sanctions, dual-use controls, and ownership transparency become harder to assess across newly configured supply chains.

The EBRD also highlighted the role of public investment, particularly infrastructure, in supporting demand when private investment hesitates under uncertainty.

That is trade-finance-relevant in a very practical way: infrastructure spending tends to pull imports of machinery, components, and services, and it often supports export competitiveness by reducing logistics cost and improving reliability. But the same macro story contains a warning: the longer tariff volatility persists, the more it can chill long-term planning, delay capex, and widen the dispersion between "winners" (those who capture diverted trade) and "losers" (those dependent on disrupted corridors).

Taken together, the revised forecasts are not a signal that trade tension is benign; they are evidence that emerging and transition economies are adapting, sometimes quickly, by reorienting production and exports, leaning on public investment, and exploiting diversification openings created by the reshaping of global trade patterns.

Further information: https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-tariff-turmoil-yet-dent-emerging-countries-growth-ebrd-says-2026-02-26/

This article presents the views of the author and not necessarily those of ICC.