A new global survey of senior supply chain and logistics executives reveals a striking combination of confidence and caution as businesses prepare for 2026's trading environment. According to DP World's Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026, released ahead of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, a large majority of respondents expect trade volumes to either match or exceed the pace of 2025 despite rising policy uncertainty and ongoing cost pressures.

The survey, which canvassed more than 3,500 executives across eight industries and 19 countries, found that 94 per cent anticipate that global trade growth in 2026 will be on par with or faster than last year. Within that group, 54 per cent expect faster growth and 40 per cent expect growth to remain similar, even as 53 per cent of leaders describe policy uncertainty as "high" or "very high."

This confidence contrasts somewhat with some traditional macroeconomic projections suggesting a modest slowdown in trade volume growth in 2026. Nonetheless, the outlook presented by DP World's report underscores a strong belief among practitioners that strategic and operational adaptations will enable businesses to manage volatility and maintain momentum.

Respondents emphasised practical steps they are taking to build resilience in the face of geopolitical friction and supply chain complexities. Key strategic changes planned for 2026 include diversification of suppliers, an increase in inventory holdings, and greater propensity to pursue friend-shoring strategies, where companies shift sourcing toward politically and commercially aligned partners to reduce exposure to risk.

The survey also highlighted an increasing focus on route agility, with a significant number of companies evaluating or actively using alternative trade channels. This reflects a broader response to cost pressures, connectivity challenges, and delays at borders, with customs clearance cited by many as a principal source of operational friction.

Beyond tactical adjustments, the report shows that executives are investing in strategic infrastructure to underpin trade performance. Warehousing and logistics hubs, enhanced road networks and improved border processing systems are emerging as priorities, signalling that firms view physical infrastructure not merely as a cost centre but as a core enabler of competitive advantage and trade efficiency.

DP World's chairman and CEO emphasised the importance of understanding where friction exists and anticipating where it could emerge, highlighting the need for investment in infrastructure, capability building and partnerships that support reliability and efficiency in a complex trading landscape.

From a trade finance standpoint, the findings suggest a landscape where demand remains robust, but financing needs will increasingly be shaped by how companies manage risk, invest in resilience and adapt to regulatory and economic uncertainty. With executives signalling confidence in growth alongside a clear acknowledgment of volatility, banks and financial institutions are likely to see continued emphasis on liquidity solutions, working capital facilities and instruments that support diversified supply chain strategies.

Moreover, as firms expand and shift trade routes, trade finance providers may need to innovate with products that serve not only traditional corridors but also emerging markets and alternative channels, extending beyond core LC, guarantee and supply chain finance models to accommodate evolving commercial realities.

Further information: https://www.logisticsmiddleeast.com/analysis/dp-world-report-maps-trade-risks-and-priorities-for-2026?utm_source=chatgpt.com

This article presents the views of the author and not necessarily those of ICC.